Jacob Calvert
I use probability theory to understand what collectives can or could do. My aim is to enable new functionality for engineered collectives, like robot swarms and smart materials, and generate novel scientific hypotheses about natural collectives, like groups of animals and biological tissues. To learn more, check out Papers or Posts.
Clinical risk scores can cheat the AUC when the time that an adverse event occurs in a positive-class stay tends to exceed the duration of a negative-class stay. Risk scores should be compared to uniformly random scores that match their timing.
My latest paper introduces the concept of critical numerosity: A number of individuals above and below which the behavior of a collective qualitatively differs.
This post explains how the Markov chain dichotomy of transience and recurrence implies dichotomous behavior for certain models of collective motion.